Top 10 Running Back Prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft

The 2018 running back group has depth but, at the top, a very clear number 1 who could be as good a prospect as Gurley, Elliott or Fournette have been in recent years.

The modern NFL dictates that ideal running backs should have speed, power, decisiveness, vision, play making ability as well as the ability to catch and block. Rarely will there be prospects that tick all of those boxes and, thankfully, the NFL has room for the smaller, box of tricks type guys. This group of prospects has a healthy mix of backs that fit different roles and different levels of worthiness to different teams.

Here, I’ll outline my top 10 (pre-combine) regardless of team fit/scheme:

Saquon Barkley – Penn State – Junior – 5ft-11 – 223lb

Barkley is the clear #1 back that I referred to earlier, he’s ready to play in the NFL right now. The best thing I’ve heard said about him is that he’s a grown-up Ezekiel Elliott and that sums him up pretty well. He’s smart, driven and likeable. If there are any knocks on him you could say he isn’t the most powerful but with a bit longer in the weight room that could be fixed. You’d like to see him go North-South more often than bounce it to the outside but, again, that’s fixable and he certainly has the ability to do it and run between the tackles. The bottom line is that he has elite speed, acceleration & agility. He’s elusive and can break big runs. He’s decisive and has great vision. He possesses great balance and body control. He’s a great pass-catcher and a mismatch nightmare for defenders. He has good ball security and is a decent/willing blocker. For me, he’s a guaranteed top 5 pick.

Derrius Guice – LSU – Junior – 5ft-11 – 212lb

Guice is a great combination of size, speed & power. His detractions may be more on the technical side and his receiving/pass protection need improvement if he’s going to be a true 3 down back. Guice appears to have great vision but he can be indecisive. He is able to make sudden cuts to avoid would-be tacklers and he’s able to push forward for yards after contact. Guice runs with good balance but appears to lack that elite burst that would often break the long run. Guice has an NFL ready frame but could do with adding a few more pounds of muscle, he has had injury issues (knee/ankle) and he does take punishing hits at times. NFL teams worry about running backs’ workloads in college given their short shelf life when they turn pro, this is something Guice will have to convince teams about if he’s to go in the top half of the first round. More likely, Guice will be drafted in the 18-25 range in April.

Rashaad Penny – San Diego State – Senior – 5ft-11 – 220lb

Penny has shot up draft boards since the Senior Bowl and now that ‘experts’ have really taken a good look at his tape. I too am converted and he sits clearly in my top 3 backs for this draft. There’s plenty to like about Penny, at the very worst you’re getting a great complementary back who can return kicks. He has great speed, acceleration & agility. Penny demonstrates great vision and has plenty of open field moves to elude defenders, he’s also patient and secures the ball well to avoid fumbles. He’s prototypical size for a lead back with good power, balance and body control, he finishes runs well and can break arm tackles. Penny played in a pro-style offense at San Diego state albeit against poorer opposition than if he’d been at a bigger school. Penny is a good pass catcher but his pass protection could use improvement (this is generally typical of a back turning pro). Penny does have a reasonably upright style of running and is vulnerable to big hits. Long term durability may be a concern especially if he continues to return kicks & punts in the NFL. Penny could rise up boards further before after the combine but, as it stands, I have him as a possible late first round pick or early second round.

Sony Michel – Georgia – Senior – 5ft-11 – 222lb

Michel is another back who has risen up boards recently. Again, he showed well at the Senior Bowl and experts like what they see on tape. Michel shared carries with Nick Chubb (profiled later) at Georgia and that will actually help his stock as he’s not yet carried a full load. Michel, and Chubb, benefited from a good o-line at Georgia but that shouldn’t cloud their undoubted ability. When I first scouted these running backs, Michel was the one where I actually sat forward and said ‘this guy looks great’. Again, Michel is prototypical size for a starting back, he’s muscular and well-built. Michel’s main strength is his discipline, he runs decisively and with great vision. He has good acceleration/burst and finishes his runs well to maximise yardage after contact although he doesn’t have elite speed nor agility and his hips are a little tighter than you’d like. Unlike most rookies, Michel has exceptional pass protection ability he doesn’t, however, have great ability as a pass catcher which could knock him as a true 3 down back. Michel has good character and is a leader in the locker room. I worry that he has slight boom or bust potential but, with the right team, he should flourish. For me, Michel is definitely a top 5 back in this draft and I see him going to a running back needy team in the 2nd round.

Ronald Jones – USC – Junior – 6ft-1 – 195lb

Jones is the tallest, skinniest back we’ve looked at thus far. Jones is naturally quick and elusive he also possesses good patience to wait for a hole to emerge before he uses his great acceleration to burst through. Jones has ‘electric feet’ and loose hips which allow his to make great cuts/moves and be seen as a big play runner. Despite his lean frame, Jones fights for extra yardage and, generally, finishes his runs falling forward. Jones could be a 3 down back as he is a good pass catcher and a decent pass protector, these both need work but he’s on the right track and very coach-able. The worry with Jones is that he may not be someone who could carry a heavy load in the pros, he’s also not that gadget type player that generally complements the main back. I believe he has great potential and, in time, could be a good starter in the NFL. I’m not keen on player comparisons but I’d consider him as a thinner version of Kenyan Drake who proved last year that he’s able to be a #1 back. In draft terms, Jones should be called in the 2nd or 3rd round to initially be a complementary back with starter upside.

Kerryon Johnson – Auburn – Junior – 6ft – 212lb

Although heavier than Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson also possesses a thin frame and a lot of the same traits. Johnson is more explosive and more physical but not quite as quick footed. Johnson possesses an instant burst and he is tough and courageous into the tackle. Johnson has some nice moves and a really strong stiff arm that can help him to get extra yardage. Johnson is patient but only has average vision. When he’s focused, Johnson is a purposeful downhill runner capable of picking up large chunks of yardage. Johnson could be a 3 down back, he seems to understand his responsibilities in protection very well and he has good enough hands to be a decent pass threat out of the backfield. Johnson is another back who runs a little more upright than you’d like and he generally needs to be more physical and to trust his power. Johnson has had a number of injuries and durability is a big concern. Overall, Johnson is a good runner who could thrive with good coaching. I project him as a late 2nd round pick.

Royce Freeman – Oregon – Senior – 6ft – 234lb

Freeman is the one back that I can’t really nail down, I’ve changed my mind about him multiple times but 7th in the list feels about right for him. Freeman is big and muscular but you’d like him to make more use of that size. He has been a consistent & dependable back for Oregon and you certainly can’t question his production but that, in itself, might be a problem. As I’ve said before, NFL teams will look at the workload of these backs before pulling the trigger. Freeman has carried a heavy load in college already. Freeman has great contact balance which allows him to keep his legs pumping to gain extra yards and there is undoubted power. Freeman doesn’t really project as a 3 down player but he could develop the skills required in the pros, he’s not a million miles off. Freeman looks natural when he runs and, despite not being elusive, he does have good vision to break longer runs. I would say Freeman’s draft ceiling is early 3rd round but teams may feel they can utilise his power especially if they don’t have an early down back on their rosters.

Kalen Ballage – Arizona State – Senior – 6ft-3 – 230lb

Ballage is one of the biggest backs in this draft class not only in bulk but in height also. His height means he runs upright but he does have the physical traits to counter issues with that. Ballage is athletic with adequate burst/acceleration. As you can probably guess, Ballage’s main worth is in utilising his size which he does to great effect in short yardage/goal-line situations and in generally providing good YAC. Ballage is surprisingly elusive and he has kick return ability. Ballage, however, does lack decisiveness and vision and his cuts/moves aren’t sharp and clean. Ballage has 3 down potential as a good pass catcher and decent blocker although, as with most of the other backs, he’ll have to improve here. In reality, Ballage could be drafted anywhere between the 2nd and 5th rounds but I think a team will love him enough to take him in the 3rd.

Nick Chubb – Georgia – Senior – 5ft-11 – 228lb

As mentioned earlier, Chubb shared carries in Georgia with Sony Michel but, unlike Michel , Chubb has carried a heavy workload and injuries have taken their toll. Chubb’s 2017 knee injury appeared that it may be career threatening at one point and this will have to check out at the combine and in workouts. The injury has undoubtedly affected Chubb’s sharpness but he is still a good runner with natural balance and good burst that will get yards after contact. Chubb has power behind his pads and he is an attacking/aggressive runner. Chubb is also quick and has the ability to make sudden cuts. Chubb is a mature character who shows good discipline and, more importantly, good ball security. Chubb doesn’t possess much potential as a 3 down back, he just wasn’t used too often in passing situations at Georgia so this is a bit of an unknown entity. Chubb has OK vision but he needs to decide when to be aggressive and when to be patient, this is something that can easily improve in the pros. Nick’s cousin Bradley is the top pass rushing prospect in this draft. At one stage, Chubb would have been a 1st round pick but now is more likely a 2nd or 3rd rounder depending on how the injury checks out.

Ito Smith – Southern Mississippi – Senior – 5ft-9 – 195lb

After seeming to favor the bigger backs, I wanted to add Smith as a wild-card who is definitely worthy of being a top ten player in this list. Smith is not going to carry the ball 25-30 times a game nor get you a touchdown from the one yard line but he offers genuine home run potential. Smith is shifty, elusive and quick footed. Smith has elite vision as well as good balance and burst. Smith is a great pass catcher which is a pre-requisite for this type of offensive weapon. Smith shows good patience when running and has great jump cut ability to make defenders miss. If Smith gets to the 2nd level then he can run it to the house with elite long speed. Smith could do with bulking up to take the punishment of the NFL but he’d have to make sure this didn’t affect his agility. Smith could work on his ball security but he is what he is and that’s a toy for offensive coordinators to play with. Smith seems to be moving up draft boards but his draft ceiling may be 3rd round but, at this point, he is more likely a 4th or 5th round pick.

#americanfootball #NFL #NFLDraft #2018NFLDraft