2017 Rankings vs Overall Performance

In this report, I’m going to look at how the rankings of coaches, quarterbacks and defense affects a team’s overall performance.

I’ve ranked the 2017 coaches in order of how I viewed them at the end of the season and I’ve done the same for the quarterbacks. The defensive rankings are the official rankings calculated by total yards conceded.

The team coefficient is the ranking of the team given the combined rankings of Coach, QB & Defence. This will act as a good guide as to whether the team over-achieved, under-achieved or performed at the level expected.

All rankings are 1 = best, 32 = worst.

I’ll try and establish which element of a team’s make-up is the most important (i.e. which aids more in achieving greatest success) and I’ll make some predictions for the future.

In the coming months, following the first scrambling’s of Free Agency and the 2018 draft, we’ll publish a ‘state of the franchise’ report for all 32 teams.

Philadelphia Eagles

Coach – Doug Pedersen (8)

QB – Carson Wentz (9)

Defense – (4)

Team Coefficient – (3)

Both Pedersen and Wentz surprised slightly in 2017, both should continue to grow and build a strong partnership capable of making multiple Superbowl visits. Philadelphia’s defense also had a stronger than expected showing meaning that all 3 elements made their respective top tens.

Verdict – Top tens across the board = Superbowl success.

Target – Pedersen and Wentz to push to make the top fives.

New England Patriots

Coach – Bill Belichick (1)

QB – Tom Brady (1)

Defense – (29)

Team Coefficient – (9)

Having the top coach and top QB is a recipe for success for the prolific Patriots and, let’s face it, they weren’t far off taking the big prize. Having the 29th ranked defense won’t please Belichick but, in reality, they weren’t that bad and the ranking may be distorted due to other teams racking up yardage whilst playing from behind.

Verdict – Top coach and QB continue to their greatness

Target – Improve defense despite Matt Patricia leaving for Detroit

Minnesota Vikings

Coach – Mike Zimmer (9)

QB – Case Keenum (19)

Defense – (1)

Team Coefficient – (4)

Defense wins championships...not in this case as the top ranked defense came up short in the championship game. Mike Zimmer is an exceptional coach who led the team creatively whilst dealing with uncertainty at QB. Keenum played well but he may not be back in 2018.

Verdict – The defense can only take you so far

Target – Find the right QB to take the team over the top

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coach – Doug Marrone (15)

QB – Blake Bortles (25)

Defense – (2)

Team Coefficient – (13)

Doug Marrone is a solid coach but it was the Jags defense that took them to the championship game. The defense has a number of young stars that could improve further to be #1 in 2018. Blake Bortles continues to be frustratingly inconsistent but it appears he’ll be back in 2018 to lead the team again.

Verdict – Exceeded expectations carried by great defensive play

Target – Get the most from Bortles

Pittsburgh Steelers

Coach – Mike Tomlin (5)

QB – Ben Roethlisberger (6)

Defense – (5)

Team Coefficient – (1)

If rankings were everything, the Steelers would be the team to beat. Not making the championshio game may be viewed as underachievement for this talented squad. Tomlin in a reliable coach who leads the team with great clarity. Roethlisberger keeps threatening retirement but I would guess he’ll be around for a few years yet.

Verdict – Yet another playoff season can’t be bad but they will feel they could have won it all.

Target – Turn talent in to championships

New Orleans Saints

Coach – Sean Payton (10)

QB – Drew Brees (3)

Defense – (17)

Team Coefficient – (7)

The Payton/Brees partnership continues to roll and put up great stats and they were aided by a much improved defence in 2017 which led to a playoff jaunt. Brees is near the end of his great career but he is good for at least 1 more year assuming he’s re-signed (dead cert)

Verdict – Improved defense finally takes pressure of Brees offense

Target – Continue to draft well by adding talent on defense and playmakers on offense

Atlanta Falcons

Coach – Dan Quinn (13)

QB – Matt Ryan (7)

Defense – (9)

Team Coefficient – (5)

Both Quinn and Ryan regressed slightly in 2017 after a Superbowl visit in 2016 but they’ll be back again in 2018 with a strong supporting cast. Atlanta’s defense continues to impress and it should be strong again in 2018 with all the star players returning

Verdict – A team ready to challenge again in 2018

Target – Make slight improvements in all areas

Tennessee Titans

Coach – Mike Mularkey (31)

QB – Marcus Mariota (13)

Defense – (13)

Team Coefficient – (20)

Mularkey was widely criticised in 2017 and he ultimately lost his job. Mariota shone at times in 2017 and he should be allowed to expand the offense further in 2018. The Titans defense played well and a mid-ranked position seems about right for this unit. A playoff berth with a lowly ranked coach and middling rankings for QB and defense was an amazing performance.

Verdict – Unexpected playoff berth despite relatively low rankings

Target – New coach Mike Vrabel to improve the defense and let Mariota run wild on offense

Carolina Panthers

Coach – Ron Rivera (11)

QB – Cam Newton (11)

Defense – (7)

Team Coefficient - (6)

Coach Rivera and QB Newton have great symmetry with #11 rankings. Newton didn’t have his strongest season but a playoff run was a decent return for this team. Carolina’s defense played above expectations to be a top ten unit.

Verdict – Average team did well to make the playoffs especially given its tough division

Target – Find a running game to take the pressure off Cam

LA Rams

Coach – Sean McVay (12)

QB – Jared Goff (14)

Defense – (19)

Team Coefficient – (16)

Head coach Sean McVay was a star in his first year and he’s only going to improve with experience. Jared Goff improved greatly from his 2016 performance to have a strong year but he needs to sustain that now. The defense looked better than #19 ranked and they could easily be top ten in 2018.

Verdict – McVay impact drives team to great results

Target – Build a team that can sustain in all areas

Kansas City Chiefs

Coach – Andy Reid (3)

QB – Alex Smith (12)

Defense – (28)

Team Coefficient – (14)

Early in the season, KC looked like the team to beat but they couldn’t sustain especially on the 28th ranked defense where they have a number of veteran players who may not be back. Alex Smith has been traded to the Redskins so the attention turns to untested Pat Mahomes. Andy Reid remains one of the best coaches around.

Verdict – Great start to the season tapered off with some obvious deficiencies

Target – Hope Mahomes can be the QB he’s expected to be

Buffalo Bills

Coach – Sean McDermott (18)

QB – Tyrod Taylor (27)

Defense – (26)

Team Coefficient – (27)

It seemed harsh ranking McDermott at #18 after getting the unfancied Bills to the playoffs but he has room for improvement and 2018 should give a better guide to his abilities. Tyrod Taylor has been traded away despite some decent play and some harsh treatment. The defense played a lot better than the 26th ranking would suggest.

Verdict – Playoff visit despite no top half rankings

Target – Find a solid QB quickly to allow McDermott to grow in to his role

Detroit Lions

Coach – Jim Caldwell (29)

QB – Matt Stafford (8)

Defense – (27)

Team Coefficient – (23)

Caldwell has done well in Detroit but it was the right time for him to go. Stafford is just below elite level but he carries the team on his shoulders and he needs better players around him. Detroit’s defense was bad at times and definitely needs some upgrades.

Verdict – Missing the playoffs meant the inevitable coach firing

Target – New coach, Matt Patricia, to turn defense around

Dallas Cowboys

Coach – Jason Garrett (14)

QB – Dak Prescott (21)

Defense – (8)

Team Coefficient – (15)

Garrett saved his job with a great 2016 season but that wasn’t repeated in 2017 and the team has some glaring needs. Prescott may not be the QB he flattered to be in 2016 but the Cowboys will stick with him. Defensively, 8th seems too high but they did play well at times and the unit boasts some great players.

Verdict – Talented team misses playoffs. Offense declines, defense improves.

Target – Put all phases of the game together in one season

Seattle Seahawks

Coach – Pete Carroll (2)

QB – Russell Wilson (5)

Defense – (11)

Team Coefficient – (2)

Russell Wilson may have had his best year in 2017 despite the team not making the playoffs but he needs help and an o-line that can block. Pete Carroll remains one of the best coaches but he won’t be around forever. The defense played well, as usual, but they have already made changes for 2018 by shipping Michael Bennett and releasing Richard Sherman.

Verdict – Great coach, QB and defense unable to make playoffs because of poor supporting cast

Target – Rebuild on defense without losing identity

Los Angeles Chargers

Coach – Anthony Lynn (19)

QB – Phillip Rivers (4)

Defense – (15)

Team Coefficient – (12)

The Chargers finished strong and are undoubtedly an improving team but they couldn’t make a the playoffs. First year coach Anthony Lynn looked comfortable and he should improve further in year 2. Phil Rivers continues to play at an elite level. The defense ranked 15th and that seems accurate for that unit.

Verdict – Late season improvement a little too late to make playoffs

Target – Pick up where they left off

Baltimore Ravens

Coach – John Harbaugh (7)

QB – Joe Flacco (17)

Defense – (12)

Team Coefficient – (10)

The Ravens are a team you expect to challenge every year and the rankings suggest that 2017 should have been a better year for them. Harbaugh is an awesome coach and Flacco a serviceable QB. The defense has some age but it’s proficient and should be in decent tact for 2018. Injuries were an issue in 2017.

Verdict – Some great single game performances but couldn’t put it all together through the season

Target – Draft well to add depth to key positions

Arizona Cardinals

Coach – Bruce Arians (4)

QB – Carson Palmer (26)

Defense – (6)

Team Coefficient – (11)

Injuries and a tough division curtailed Arizona’s season in 2017 and both coach and QB have called it a day. Despite that, 2017 was an underachievement for coach Arians. On the defensive side, Arizona performed well and they’ll try to keep the unit together for 2018.

Verdict – Too many injuries for Arians to work his magic

Target – Draft a QB, this team may not challenge in 2018 so plan for the future

Green Bay Packers

Coach – Mike McCarthy (6)

QB – Aaron Rodgers (2)

Defense – (22)

Team Coefficient – (8)

Losing Aaron Rodgers for multiple games did for Green Bay’s season but they’ll be worried about lack of depth and a defense that was shredded at times. Coach McCarthy is still one of the best and, with a healthy Rodgers in 2018, they should rebound.

Verdict – Injury to the #2 ranked QB too much for this team lacking depth

Target – Invest in the defense even if, for once, that is done in free agency

Washington Redskins

Coach – Jay Gruden (22)

QB – Kirk Cousins (16)

Defense – (21)

Team Coefficient – (21)

The Redskins were a bang average team in 2017 and the rankings match that pretty nicely. The Skins traded to bring in Alex Smith from KC and that may well be an improvement over the departing Kirk Cousins. Jay Gruden may only have this coming year to save his job. The defense needs some work to improve on it’s 21st ranking.

Verdict – Average is not good enough in this league

Target – Make some sensible acquisitions to improve in all areas

Cincinnati Bengals

Coach – Marvin Lewis (21)

QB – Andy Dalton (25)

Defense – (18)

Team Coefficient – (24)

If Washington is average, Cincinnati is below average. Lewis was lucky to keep his job although he has undoubted pedigree. Andy Dalton took a step back in 2017 but has the talent if his supporting cast helps him out a bit more (O-line, running game). There’s not much to say about the defense, the 18th ranking seems exactly accurate.

Verdict – Roster gaps show up to make a disappointing season

Target – Lewis & Dalton to get back to working at a higher level

Miami Dolphins

Coach – Adam Gase (20)

QB – Jay Cutler (30)

Defense – (16)

Team Coefficient – (25)

Ranking Adam Gase was difficult, he would have been higher after guiding the team to the playoffs in 2016. The Jay Cutler experiment was a mistake after Ryan Tannehill went down for the year with a knee injury. The defense has some stars but under performs too often.

Verdict – Gase and Cutler unable to take talented team to the playoffs

Target – Improve with Tannehill back under center

Oakland Raiders

Coach – Jack Del Rio (28)

QB – Derek Carr (15)

Defense – (23)

Team Coefficient – (26)

The Raiders were one of the top teams in the AFC in 2016 but they couldn’t repeat that level of performance in 2017 and, somewhat harshly, Jack Del Rio was fired. The defense regressed badly in 2017 and has some glaring holes (LB, DB). Derek Carr is a fine QB and he should be fine under the tutelage of John Gruden.

Verdict – Talented team regressed to miss playoffs

Target – Gruden to get the best out of Derek Carr and add talent to defense in draft

San Francisco 49ers

Coach – Kyle Shanahan (16)

QB – Jimmy Garappolo (10)

Defense – (24)

Team Coefficient – (26

The 49ers started 2017 as expected but then took off once Garappolo went in and they look like a team to be reckoned with in 2018 with Jimmy taking a starring role. Shanahan coached admirably in 2017 despite the deficiencies the roster still have especially on the 24th ranked defense.

Verdict – Much improved team with a bright future and young stars in Garappolo & Shanahan

Target – Take a ‘win now’ approach and spend in free agency

Chicago Bears

Coach – John Fox (27)

QB – Mitch Trubisky (18)

Defense – (10)

Team Coefficient – (18)

The Bears continue to rebuild but that will be done with a new coach in 2018 after John Fox was fired. The defense was much improved last year and, with a few tweaks could improve further in 2018. Trubisky looks like a franchise signal caller but he’ll need to make improvements again for the Bears to challenge in 2018.

Verdict – Some signs of life despite coach departure

Target – Give Trubisky every chance to succeed by adding receiver talent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coach – Dirk Koetter (24)

QB – Jameis Winston (20)

Defense – (32)

Team Coefficient – (29)

Koetter very nearly lost his job and the team struggled in all facets even though they were highly touted before the season began. Winston may never be the QB that this team needs despite his athletic ability and leadership skills. The defense has too many good players to be ranked 32nd but the stats don’t lie and that’s why the team performed poorly in 2017.

Verdict – Massive underachievement for a team expected to challenge

Target – Get defense playing at a higher level. Put Winston in a position to succeed

New York Jets

Coach – Todd Bowles (23)

QB – Josh McCown (29)

Defense – (25)

Team Coefficient – (30)

This seems a strange thing to say but the Jets actually did pretty well in 2017. For a team clearly in flux, Coach Bowles worked wonders and got the best out of a relatively poor group of players. Some late season tinkerings with QB brought losses but McCown probably won’t return. The defense has some good young talent so should improve on its ranking of 25th.

Verdict – Rebuilding team over achieves

Target – Continue to add talent through the draft. Spend cap space wisely

Denver Broncos

Coach – Vance Joseph (25)

QB – Trevor Simien (28)

Defense – (3)

Team Coefficient – (19)

The defense dragged this team along to a handful of wins but poor QB play meant the team were never in a position to challenge for a playoff berth. The jury is out on Coach Joseph and he’ll need to improve in his sophomore year. I keep hearing it and it could be true that this team is just a QB away from being a contender again.

Verdict – Great defense let down by poor offensive performance

Target – Make a play for Kirk Cousins to get instant turnaround in 2018

Houston Texans

Coach – Bill O’Brien (17)

QB – DeShaun Watson (22)

Defense – (20)

Team Coefficient – (22)

Key injuries were the highlight of 2017 for the Texans. Bill O’Brien is a good, if not great, coach and could be in for a make or break year in 2018. Watson looked comfortable as a rookie passer before going down to injury and the success of the franchise seems to hang on his successful return. The defense has some superstars but, again, injuries hampered their overall performance.

Verdict – Team on the verge had poor season after injuries

Target – Don’t put too much pressure on Watson in his 2nd season

Indianapolis Colts

Coach – Chuck Pagano (30)

QB – Jacoby Brissett (31)

Defense – (30)

Team Coefficient – (32)

I think most people could see the writing on the wall for the Colts’ 2017 season. Without franchise QB Andrew Luck they were well short of building a productive season. Brissett played OK but he was never anything more than a gap filler and Pagano was a sitting duck to get fired. On the defense, it was pretty horrible too and much improvement is needed.

Verdict – Easy to predict throwaway season leaving many problems to be addressed

Target – Get Luck back on the field as soon as possible

New York Giants

Coach – Ben McAdoo (32)

QB – Eli Manning (24)

Defense – (31)

Team Coefficient – (31)

McAdoo lost the plot and was fired before his second season ended and franchise QB Eli Manning was benched for Geno Smith. The defense was surprisingly bad especially given the money spent on that unit. Manning will start the season under center but is on a short leash. It seems like an odd season when the Giants are so bad so I look to them to rebound quickly.

Verdict – A season to forget for a team built to succeed

Target – Realise the potential the team has and let them play. Draft eventual Manning successor

Cleveland Browns

Coach – Hue Jackson (26)

QB – Deshone Kizer (32)

Defense – (14)

Team Coefficient – (28)

Despite a 0-16 season there’s some positivity in Cleveland. They weren’t ‘0-16 bad’ for one thing and they’ve already added some good players through trades including former Bills QB Tyrod Taylor. They have loads of draft picks and a defense that was ranked in the top half of the league. Hue Jackson is a canny coach but it may be yet another losing season before they can eye the playoffs.

Verdict – Positivity despite winless season, great signs on defense

Target – Spend another year adding pieces through draft and free agency

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