(Don't) Fear the Process

With the 2018 NFL Draft less than a month away, I’m fully engrossed in finalising my ‘Big Board’ and we’ve just posted our Mock Draft 3.0 (Check it Out !!!).

One thing that strikes me every year is how certain players rise up boards and how some slip right down. This surprises me as these players haven’t ‘suited up’ for months and, in my opinion, their performances during the season should really be the main marker for where they’re projected to be drafted.

Here, I’m going to look at ‘The Process’ and highlight how and why players can see their draft stock rise and fall, in a blink of an eye, without actually playing a game.

The Combine

I enjoy watching the combine but I’m not a fan of how it puts so much emphasis on who is strongest or who is quickest. Obviously, we want our Offensive Linemen to be strong and our Receivers to be quick but it’s certainly not the best gauge for whether these players will become 10 year starters in the NFL. The 40 yard dash actually creates a completely false economy as often the quickest players aren’t those originally touted to be 1st round picks. This year, the quickest player was Donte Jackson, a Cornerback from LSU, who posted a time of 4.32. Jackson looks a good player but his stock has risen since the combine to him now being spoken about as a 1st round pick whereas, prior to the combine, he would have been 2nd round at best. Conversely, Orlando Brown has slipped right down the rankings after a poor combine. He fell well short in the bench press and, surprise surprise, put up an awful time in the 40. Brown doesn’t have to be quick and strong because he’s so big it takes a week to get around him. Brown was considered a lock to be a 1st round pick before but now may be lucky to be chosen before day 3. He’s still the same player, just saying.

Then there’s what may well become known as the ‘Shaquem Griffin Factor’. Griffin produced an amazing set of results in the drills at the combine this year. Griffin does not look an elite player but he’s certainly creates a feel-good story given that he only has one hand. Griffin’s performance rightly improved his draft stock although I’m happy that evaluator's haven’t suddenly made him a 1st round prospect. Despite that, Griffin will undoubtedly be over-drafted.

Players spend a lot of time preparing for the combine now and undoubtedly spend a lot of time practicing the drills. We don’t generally see the results of the interviews the players give at the combine. This, hopefully, Is the main source of information that teams take away and gives them a better feel for a player than any board jump could ever do.

Red Flags

Scouts dig in to players backgrounds to obtain an alarming amount of information about their characters and behaviors.

Viewing this in a positive light, you’d say this is a way of establishing whether a player has leadership skills or is a good team mate. Seeing it more negatively, you’d say this was overkill and, as I said before, surely the most important element of a player’s make-up is how they perform on the Gridiron.

One of the top QB prospects in this year’s draft is Josh Rosen and some seem to question his attitude and love of the game. I’m not sure where this has come from, he does seem a little bit of an awkward character but there’s nothing to suggest he’s not a team guy nor a really good leader. He was credited with saying that he wouldn’t want to play for Cleveland but surely this, if anything, was just an honest response to a direct question. Bottom line is, he looks a really good player.

This year actually seems to have far fewer players with red flags than in previous years.

One player who has been flagged is Holton Hill, a Corner from Texas, who seems to have a good skill set and great size for the position. Unfortunately, Hill has had multiple drug related issues and ended the 2017 season suspended from the team. With this kind of player, teams will have to determine whether talent beats out problems.

Injuries

Injuries can have an impact on a player’s draft stock in a number of ways. Either a player enters the draft with an injury concern and therefore falls down the rankings (see Billy Price) or a player has already returned from injury to be less effective than they were beforehand (see Harold Landry or Nick Chubb). In Price’s case, he suffered his injury at the combine which not only was untimely but very public. He is still considered to be one of the top interior linemen available in the draft but his stock has been hurt and he may now miss out on being a 1st round pick even though he should be recovered in time for the season. Landry and Chubb both returned from injury in 2017 and subsequently performed at a lower level than they had before. In both cases, scouts will have to establish whether their dip in performance was because they weren’t fully fit or was it because their injury has a long-term effect on them.

Another notable player whose draft stock has been hurt due to poor health is Maurice Hurst. Hurst was diagnosed with a heart condition at his pre-combine medical and was unable to perform. This has severely hurt Hurst’s draft ranking as he was considered a top 10 pick beforehand and now may move out of the 1st round entirely. Hurst should be fine but it will put a lot of teams off.

Small School Prospects

All teams will dream of finding a small school prospect in the lower rounds who then goes on to become a hall of famer. The problem here is that despite what may look like a great player on tape you have to assess them with the knowledge that the level of competition is inferior. Marcus Davenport is considered one of the top Pass Rushers in the draft and his tape does, indeed, look impressive but he hasn’t played against good college tackles let alone NFL standard tackles. Davenport showed well at the Senior bowl which has elevated his stock further but he would be a risky pick and no sure thing.

Courtland Sutton of SMU is another player who is going to be difficult to evaluate. A lot of people have him as the top receiver in the draft but does he really compare favourably with Calvin Ridley when Ridley was playing against the country’s best defensives week on week. Sutton actually appears to be falling down some boards now and this may be simply because he’s untested.

Hot Names

A few players this year can be considered hot names i.e. their draft stock has peaked at exactly the right time. Two that come to mind are Leighton Vander Esch and Rasheem Green. On one board I saw lately these were both in the top 50 with Vander Esch in the top 20. Take it back a month or so and both of these players may have struggled to get in to the top 100. I think they’re both good players but I’m not sure what has been seen on their tape that has elevated them so highly, so quickly. What appears to have happened is that their names become talked about and therefore they are seen in a positive light when, actually, nobody is bothering to look at the tape.

Highlights over Games

One trap I used to fall in to was trying to evaluate players by watching their highlights. When you’re viewing highlights you’re obviously seeing a player’s best plays and, therefore, they’ll always look great. I’m still in the process of evaluating around 350-400 players and there’s no way I could watch every minute of every game but you need to dig deeper as it’s as important to see what they do badly as what they do well. Dare I say it, one player that may benefit from a highlight based evaluation is Saquon Barkley. If you put on Youtube and his highlight reels come up, there’s a lot return plays which are awesome but, if I’m going to take a player #1 in the draft, I want a 3 down running back who can catch & block not a fluffed up return man (yes, I’m still bitter about Miami drafting Ted Ginn)

Evaluators Trying to be Clever

I’m not a massive fan of mock drafts (I know we’ve just posted one) as, generally, they’ll be at least one pick that is made to try and be clever (e.g. Lamar Jackson to Seattle because in 10 years time they’ll need a replacement for Russell Wilson) You’ll also get evaluators making player comparisons which is just really their way of trying to say that a certain player may well end up like one we know (e.g. Baker Mayfield & Johnny Manziel) I’m not sure how these comparisons are derived but they really aren’t a good way of establishing how good a player is going to be in the pros. I suppose it would all be very boring if everybody had the same opinion of players and if the draft became predictable.

Conflicting Pros/Cons

In the early phases of scouting players, I tend to watch a bit of film and then see what some of the experts say to check whether what I’m seeing matches up with the general consensus. I’d be a rich man if I had £1 for every time I’ve seen conflicting pros/cons. One that has been laughable this year is Tremaine Edmunds as no two evaluations of him are the same. Some say he’s good in coverage some say he’s bad, some say he’s a good tackler some say he needs work, some say he’s quick some say he’s slow, some say he’s got good instincts some say this is the area he needs to work on the most. This clearly shows you’re better off trusting your own eyes rather than just assuming a player is average at everything !!!

Team Fit/Scheme

One final point to make is that a player is really only as good as the opportunity he gets. By this I mean the player will need to be drafted by a team where he fits the scheme. Sorry to go on about Miami again but I was devastated when we drafted Charles Harris last year. Harris is a good player but he seems a far better fit for a 3-4 defense whereas Miami play a 4-3. Unsurprisingly, Harris struggled in his first year especially as he tried to bulk up which affected his explosiveness. The main point here, and hopefully this is captured in mock drafts, is that the best player available may not always be the best one to choose. When evaluating and/or creating mock drafts you really need to do a big board for every team as each teams view of a player will differ given the schemes they play on both offense and defense.

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