State of the Franchise - Atlanta Falcons

2017 Record: 10 – 6

Last Play-off Appearance: 2017

Coach: Dan Quinn (29 – 19)

GM: Dan Quinn/Scott Pioli

2017 Performance

The Falcons were expected to have the Super Bowl hangover to end all Super Bowl hangovers. Every media outlet, talking about the NFL, thought it was a foregone conclusion after that loss to New England. Dan Quinn’s response to this? ‘We’re past that, we may not be over it, but we’re past it’ and ‘Embrace the suck’ became the mantra of the Falcons for the offseason.

The media simply would not let it drop and made it difficult for the Falcons to focus on the upcoming season. A trip to Soldier Field wasn’t going to make the start of the 2017 season any easier either. In their opening game, the Falcons were inconsistent throughout and, as it turned out, this was a microcosm for how the season was going to play out for Atlanta.

There were some stellar performances. Wins against Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle and Carolina in the regular season, followed by the victory over the LA Rams in the playoffs, showed that Atlanta still had that killer instinct on offense which was now coupled with a ‘fast and physical’ defense that Dan Quinn’s coaching philosophy mandates. On the down side, Falcons fans were served up dismal performances against Miami, New England, Minnesota and Philadelphia with the latter ending Atlanta’s playoff run.

Whilst the Falcons remained largely unchanged on the field for 2017, the same couldn’t be said for the coaching staff and that, probably, had the most significant impact on Atlanta’s rollercoaster ride of a season. Almost everyone will be aware of Kyle Shanahan leaving for a head coach position at the 49ers but a number of other coach and coordinator positions were vacated in the offseason. Defensive Coordinator, Defensive Line Coach, Offensive Assistant, Running Backs Coach and Quarterbacks Coach all had new faces for the 2017 season.

Offensively, it was always going to be difficult to match the impressive performance from 2016 but the Falcons still finished 8th in the league for total yardage. Fans and analysts alike laid the blame for the drop off squarely at the feet of new offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, and It’s easy to see why. The offensive play-calling in 2017 was confusing to say the least. Mention the words ‘Jet Sweep’ to a Falcons fan and you’ll be met with laughter mixed with despair and rage.

The talent is there for the offense to soar again in 2018. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and even Austin Hooper are, at the very least, capable peformers. Sarkisian needs to take a step forward and make his mark, his job may depend on it.

On the other side of the ball, however, improvements were made and it could be argued that they edged their way into a top 10 defensive unit. The defense ranked 9th for yards allowed per game and 8th for points allowed per game. Those metrics are a vast improvement from the previous season where the Falcons, for both categories, were in the bottom 10. If they can improve their numbers for turnovers and sacks, Atlanta will become a defensive juggernaut.

2018 Roster Moves

Let’s start with the players that Atlanta have moved on from. One name that most football fans will recognise will be Dontari Poe who the Falcons signed to a one year ‘prove it’ deal last year. Poe didn’t do much wrong, to be fair, but quality run stuffers come at a premium and, with multiple contract extensions looming on the horizon, the choice was made to let Poe walk. He was picked up by divisional rivals, the Carolina Panthers.

Another name that may be familiar is Adrian Clayborn. Clayborn’s production was never all that great, apart from a 6-sack game against the Dallas Cowboys, but he was a useful rotational piece nonetheless. He was later signed by the Patriots on a 2-year deal.

Taylor Gabriel was also let go. Sarkisian completely failed to utilise Gabriel’s skillset in his first season as Offensive Coordinator so it was no big surprise for the Falcons to pass up on signing Gabriel to a new contract. The speedster found a new role with the Chicago Bears.

Finally, back-up Tight End, Levine Toilolo, was also released with a post June 1st designation.

With regards to signings, Atlanta picked up Justin Bethel, Cornerback from the Cardinals. It’s unlikely he’ll see much time at Corner and is more likely to contribute on special teams. Logan Paulsen, Tight END, was signed as a replacement for Levine Toilolo and will mainly see blocking duties rather than be used in the passing game. Last, but not least, the Falcons signed a reliable guard in Brandon Fusco to, most likely, give Wes Schweitzer competition at Right Guard. More recently, the Falcons picked up Defensive Tackle, Terrell McClain.

In the first round of the draft, the Falcons selected Receiver, Calvin Ridley. It was somewhat surprising that Ridley fell all the way to 26 but the selection, potentially, gives the Falcons the strongest receiving corps in the league. Another talent that dropped unexpectedly: Cornerback, Isaiah Oliver, fell to Atlanta in the second round. I expect both of these selections to be starters for the Falcons in the coming season. Deadrin Senat, DT, was their third round selection and will also see snaps, off the bat, with Dan Quinn utilising rotation of personnel to heavy effect. In the lower rounds, they selected: Ito Smith (RB), Russell Gage (WR) and Foye Oluokun (LB).

2018 Expected Starters

QB – Matt Ryan

RB – Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman

WR – Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Justin Hardy

TE – Austin Hooper, Logan Paulsen

LT – Jake Matthews

LG – Andy Levitre

C – Alex Mack

RG – Brandon Fusco

RT – Ryan Schraeder

DE – Vic Beasley, Takkarist Mckinley, Brooks Reed, Derrick Shelby

DT – Grady Jarrett, Terrell McClain, Jack Crawford, Deadrin Senat

LB – Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, Duke Riley

S – Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Kemal Ishmael, Damontae Kazee

CB – Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford, Isaiah Oliver, Brian Poole

K – Matt Bryant

P – Matt Bosher

LS – Josh Harris

2018 Outlook

A lot hinges on the development of second year Offensive Coordinator, Steve Sarkisian. In his first year, he was asked to try and stick with the offensive scheme that Shanahan had previously employed. Sarkasian was a rookie OC and didn’t utilise the players at his disposal, the offense looked disjointed and predictable. Atlanta needs Sarkisian to take a big step forward this year. Key players are at the peak of their powers and it’ll be a huge waste not to get a Lombardi when the Falcons certainly have the talent to bring one home.

The offense is loaded and really should have its eye on being a top 5, if not top 3, unit. Matt Ryan has recently inked a contract extension and you only have to look at his 2016 season to see why he’s one of the best Quarterbacks in the league. Looking at the rest of the offense, it just drips with talent. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Austin Hooper, if he too can take a step forward, will be a huge problem for defenses to deal with.

If Calvin Ridley can step up from game 1 then it could be another blistering year for this unit.

Where things might fall down, on offense, is with the O-Line. Whilst Alex Mack is possibly the best Center in the game, the pieces around him certainly have some question marks. At left tackle, Jake Matthews is dependable but not elite. Matthews has a tendency to get a little grabby at times and that can be costly. Inside, at Left Guard, Andy Levitre has been pretty good but he is aging and last season was cut short, for him, by injury.

That combination never bodes well especially in a position of such physicality. Right Guard is, currently, the largest question mark on the O-Line. Wes Schweitzer had moments of good play but was too often outwitted at the line of scrimmage. Numerous times, Schweitzer completely whiffed his blocking assignment leading to Matt Ryan getting pressured and that simply can’t happen at this level. Luckily for Ryan, the Falcons brought in Brandon Fusco for competition to Schweitzer. Finally, Right Tackle is a bright spot on the line with Ryan Schraeder manning the position. Schraeder quietly goes about his business and does an incredible job, he should get more recognition for the quality protection he provides on that side of the line.

On the defensive side of the ball, things are looking juicy indeed. The improvement last season was remarkable and the defense was the reason why the Falcons won a number of their games, not the offense. Atlanta have an under-appreciated game wrecker in Grady Jarrett at Defensive Tackle. A lot of fans, and analysts alike, expected a the Falcons 1st round pick to be a Defensive Tackle, to pair up with Jarrett, but the Falcons have added enough quality pieces to make their interior a force to be reckoned with.

Vic Beasley is being moved back to End after spending much of his time at Linebacker last season. This resulted in a big drop off in sacks, and turnovers, so the Falcons will be hoping for a return to form for Beasley. With Takkarist McKinley coming in from the other side, Atlanta could finally have a potent pass rush this coming season.

Bottom Line

The Falcons are in win now mode, with a salary cap that’s nearly maxed out and key players in their prime, Atlanta expects. Not only that but this season they have a chance to make history with the Super Bowl being hosted in their home town. If the Falcons make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll be the first team to make the big game at home.

If Sarkisian can take the step forward, with his creativity in play-calling and using the weapons available to him, the Falcons offense should be devastating once again. Tie this in with a defense that is fast, hard-hitting and stingy and you have the recipe for success. Considering all of this, even in a strong NFC, the Falcons are a team to be reckoned with. Expect them to make the playoffs and, then, don’t be surprised to see them go even further than that.

Written by Russell Irving, NFL Analyst, Atlanta Falcons