State of the Franchise - Kansas City Chiefs

2017 Record: 10-6

Last playoff appearance: 2017/18 season

Head Coach: Andy Reid (5th year; record: 53-27-0 regular season, 1-4 postseason)

General Manager: Brett Veach (1st year)

2017 Review

If I could sum up the Chiefs’ 2017 as a metaphor it would, without a doubt, be a rollercoaster ride.

Starting out strong with an unbeaten 5-0 record, the franchise and its fan base felt unstoppable; especially after coming into week one and taking down the defending Superbowl champs on the road. Week six seemed to be where the Chiefs hype train derailed and, catastrophically, at that. Going from a 5-0 team at the end of week 5 to a 6-6 team towards the home stretch, it soon dawned on the Chiefs fans that things weren’t going as planned.

The team managed to pull things back together and, after beating all three of our divisional rivals in the last four games of the season as well as securing a convincing win over Miami, the Chiefs stole the AFC West crown, in back-to-back seasons, and scraped into a wild card spot as the fourth seed.

Despite a strong finish in the regular season, it seems that we still couldn’t, finally, get over our playoff demons, blowing an 18-point lead and losing to the Titans by one point; ending our season in disappointing fashion.

The season wasn’t all doom and gloom by any means; there are plenty of positives to reminisce on as well as things to look forward to in the season ahead.

For starters, Alex Smith had a career-best season with the Chiefs. Throwing for over 4,000 yards, with a completion percentage of 67.5, was an incredible achievement for the veteran who’s been criticised, his entire NFL career, for being too conservative. Smith changed the perception of him in multiple ways with a career high of 26 touchdowns, and only 5 INTs, as well as breaking his career highs for single-season 20+ yard throws with 52, and +40 yard throws with 13.

As brilliantly as Smith performed, it did help that he had the quickest player in the league in Tyreek Hill, arguably one of the best receiving TE’s in Travis Kelce and rookie RB, Kareem Hunt, who ended the season leading the league in rushing yards.

So, with an offence on paper that looks so threatening, where did this mid-season 1-6 slump and wildcard embarrassment come from? I put this down to two factors: the offensive play-calling and the defense as a whole.

At the beginning of the season, our playcalling was unique, dynamic and scary to opposing defenses. We utilised all our skill positions, made possible by the versatility of Kelce and Hill, and established our run game through Hunt. However, as the weeks progressed, our play-calling remained the same whereas defenses learnt the tricks and adjusted accordingly. Trick plays and options, which worked to perfection in the first half of the season, fell apart in the middle as opponents gained traction on the majority of the plays and could more easily predict the plays. As soon as Andy Reid gave up play-calling, to Offensive Coordinator Matt Nagy after the week 12 loss to the Jets, we picked up the pace and started winning again.

It was a similar story in the crippling wild card round loss to the Titans. With an 18-point lead at the half, Matt Nagy’s offensive play-calling was working a treat. However, as soon as Reid took over after half time our offense went back to its mid-season sloppy form, didn’t score a single point and the game was blown.

Now, onto the defense. Obviously, the most critical blow to the team came early in the season with the loss of three-time first team all-pro safety, Eric Berry, to an ACL injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the win over New England in week one.

Without Berry, the secondary struggled all season long despite the usual brilliance of Marcus Peters (I’ll address his move to LA later, it’s quite an emotional topic). Peters went off again this season with five interceptions even though he was targeted a lot less than in previous years. Lining up as the left cornerback in 94% of his snaps, it was clear that Peters had a preferred side of the field. However, this meant that Offensive Coordinators would simply line their better receivers on the opposite side and target them a LOT more often. This practice exposed weakness in our secondary with lesser-talented players like Phillip Gaines, Terrence Mitchell and Steven Nelson who were consistently burned on plays.

Here’s another interesting stat for you: as far as fantasy football is concerned, Kansas City gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers lined up on Peters’ side of the ball. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the field, the rest of the Chiefs’ secondary gave up the third-most.

The secondary wasn’t the only hole on the defense last year. Our run defense became slow and lacked instinctive, aggressive behaviors. With veteran linebackers, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, growing older and slower by the week the team played a lot more conservative when it came to stopping the run instead of being consistently aggressive and powerful.

So, like I said, a roller-coaster of a season for KC. The good, the bad and the ugly (just like an old-fashioned AFC Western) pardon the pun. With some talent to build on next season, as well as some gaps to fill, it’s only a matter of time before we see whether it all comes together or falls apart horrendously.

2018 Roster Moves

The Chiefs have been the busiest they’ve been in a long, long time this off-season. With several moves being made, some understandable, others pure shocking. Let’s delve in.

The first main move of the 2018 offseason was the sad departure of Alex Smith. The 13-year veteran spent the last five seasons as the starting Quarterback for the Chiefs. However, after the big move up in last year’s draft to acquire Patrick Mahomes, who the Chiefs see as the future of the franchise, it was clear that Smith’s time in a Chiefs’ jersey was coming to an end.

In return for Alex Smith, the Chiefs received CB Kendall Fuller and a third round pick. Now, as much of a stud as he was in his five-year tenure at Kansas City, I think his time had come. Smith was a great regular season QB, leading the Chiefs to back to back AFC West title seasons in 2016 and 2017. However, Smith’s one downside was his inability to take the Chiefs to the next level and win championships. Receiving Fuller, as well as a third round pick, was a great trade especially with our secondary in desperate need of some help and other holes that needed addressing in the draft which the extra pick could help fill.

It's not what we got for Smith that has excited me about this trade the most, it's what message the trade is sending the league. Shipping off Smith, after his career-best season with the Chiefs, highlights how ready the front office thinks Mahomes is. This trade just screams: “Mahomes is our guy, he’s ready, the future of this franchise starts now”. If the Mahomes ship is sailing... I’m all aboard.

The off-season wasn’t all clear sailing for the Chiefs, however, the roster took some hits as well. The biggest shock of all was the loss of all-pro CB, Marcus Peters. The 25-year old, from the University of Washington, has been lighting up the league for three seasons now. With 21 so far in his career, Peters has led the NFL in interceptions since 2015 and it isn’t even close (the nearest player to him has 14).

So, why did the Chiefs push a stud like this to the Rams? If you want my verdict, coming from someone who actually has a Marcus Peters’ jersey… I have no idea. Peters is, without a doubt, a top 3 corner in the league.

Some will say it was down to off-field problems as well as Peters’ temper which made him hard to work with. The trade itself saw the Chiefs send a 2018 sixth-rounder to the Rams whilst only receiving. in return, a 2018 fourth-round pick and a 2019 second-round pick. No, I didn’t type that incorrectly, the Chiefs actually did trade away Marcus Peters for two picks.

Other notable losses on the roster were: WR Albert Wilson, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Kenneth Acker, LB Ramik Wilson and LB Kevin Pierre-Louis.

So, how did we respond? Well, I’m glad you asked. In free agency, the Chiefs were considerably active, acquiring speedy, hard hitting LB Anthony Hitchens, previous-division rival CB David Amerson, RB Kerwynn Williams, S Robert Golden, DT Xavier Williams and WR Sammy Watkins.

Now, Watkins is someone I want to go into more detail about. Picking him up form the Rams is my favourite free agency move, from the Chiefs, this season.

With a QB going into what is, effectively, his rookie season as a full-time starter he needs as many reliable weapons, at his disposal, as possible. With Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and now Sammy Watkins; Mahomes now has a plethora of talent around him to take the pressure off his shoulders a little.

If I could sum up the Chiefs’ draft in three words they would be: Defense, Defense, Defense. With no first round pick, due to the trade to grab Mahomes number ten overall last year, the Chiefs had to wait until pick 54 before we were put on the clock.

It was clear that our run defense struggled last season. With veteran LBs and a slow, passive defensive line, it was about time we got some angry guys to fill those gaps and make some plays. Bringing in DE Breeland Speaks with our first pick, as well as DT Derrick Nandi and OLB Dorian O’Daniel in the third round and DT Reginald McKenzie Jr in the sixth round, I feel like there was, at least, an attempt to address this issue. These picks were clearly an attempt to beef up that interior and stop the run effectively.

Our other two picks came in round four, where we grabbed S Armani Watts, and round six, where CB Tremon Smith fell to us. These two picks highlighted an effort to fix a struggling secondary that was further depleted, with the loss of Peters, in the offseason.

2018 Projected Starters:

Offense

QB - Patrick Mahomes

RB 1 - Kareem Hunt

RB 2 - Charcandrick West

WR 1 - Tyreek Hill

WR 2 - Sammy Watkins

TE 1 - Travis Kelce

LT - Eric Fisher

LG - Bryan Witzmann

C - Zach Fulton

RG - Laurent Duvernay-Tardif

RT - Mitchell Schwartz

Defense

DE - Chris Jones

DT - Allen Bailey

DE - Breeland Speaks

OLB - Justin Houston

OLB - Dee Ford

ILB - Anthony Hitchens

ILB - Reggie Ragland

CB - Kendall Fuller

CB - David Amerson

Slot/Nickel - Steven Nelson

SS - Eric Berry

FS - Daniel Sorensen

Special Teams

K - Harrison Butker

P - Dustin Colquitt

LS - James Winchester

2018 Outlook

Personally, I’m looking forward to seeing this group next season. Now, I’m not saying that means I have high hopes for the team because, frankly, I don’t. I’m saying they will be a very entertaining team to watch next season.

Of course, you can muster up as much hope as you want for the Chiefs’ 2018 season but I feel like there are too many question marks at this point in time. Will Mahomes shine? Will our rookies hit the ground running? Will Kareem Hunt maintain his rookie performance? Will Andy Reid, finally, be more lenient on play-calling? Those questions will soon be answered.

In my opinion, Mahomes has a lot of potential and is ready to take over as a starter (and why would they get rid of Smith, after arguably his best season, if they weren’t confident enough in the young QB?)

The other skill positions, on the offensive side of the ball, are scary good. Tyreek, Travis, Kareem and the newly added Sammy are a force to be reckoned with especially with the gun slinging, risk taking QB that we now have. I do, however, feel like Mahomes will still suffer from some growing pains.

On to the defense. Yes, I know, it's the elephant in the room. All I’m going to say is, if we outscore our opponents it doesn’t matter how many they put up against us. I’m not saying the defense is dire because it's far from it. We have Fuller now, we have all-pro veteran safety Eric Berry back from injury, we have destructive OLB Justin Houston still ready to play and some young rookies hungry to feast at the next level.

Bottom Line

Bottom Line

I took some time to have a look at Kansas City’s schedule next season, looked at the strength of our division rivals and tried to create a final round-up based on that.

Our division rivals look improved. The Broncos have a certain starting QB now in Case Keenum who seems very comfortable in his position in Denver, based on John Elway’s praise of him. The Chargers had a great roster last season however, now, with the addition of rookie Safety, Derwin James, they seem to be the main divisional competition for the Chiefs this season. Now, the Raiders aren’t amazing but they’re still worth considering. However, I do feel like Oakland are that team that always get played up in the offseason but can never produce once week one kicks off.

So, what do I predict as the Chiefs’ record at the end of next season? Best case scenario, I could see us going 8-8, or 7-9, which is a slight regression from last season but understandable given the offseason. The team was really compiled last season with players on the team knowing their place and a great team ethic. With so many new pieces, on both sides of the ball, I feel like there are too many uncertainties to be sure whether these new players will shine. Worst case, I couldn’t see us losing more than 10 games so I’m confident we’ll still be in the top half of teams in the league next season and challenging for a playoff berth late in to the season.

Written By Owen Widdowson, NFL Analyst, Kansas City Chiefs