State of the Franchise - New England Patriots

2017 Record: 13 - 3

Last Playoff Appearance: 2017

Coach: Bill Belichick (record 214 – 47 with patriots, 250 – 118 overall)

GM: Bill Belichick

2017 Performance

After the amazing finish to 2016, with the greatest comeback in Superbowl history, 2017 saw the Patriots get back to the promise land but finish the season with questions and rumors surrounding the franchise.

The build up to the season was huge. After adding speedy downfield threat, Brandon Cooks, via trade and paying cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, big money in free agency, a lot of the media were tipping the Pats to go 16 – 0. The offense appeared comparable to the record setting, 2007 offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The preseason, however, didn’t go smoothly for the Patriots with ‘ever reliable’ receiver, Julian Edelman, going down with a season ending ACL injury in the third preseason game, against the Lions, and Linebacker, Derek Rivers, suffering a similar injury in training camp. Despite these losses, things still looked good for the Patriots,

The 16-0 talk ended pretty quickly after an opening night 42 - 27 ass kicking at the hands of the Chiefs. Even though the Patriots lead for most of the game, they never looked in control and 21 unanswered points, in the 4th quarter, highlighted gaps in the defense that would be an issue all season long (as the Eagles showed in Superbowl 52).

The Patriots’ defense had been the number 1 scoring unit in 2016 but, in the first 6 weeks of 2017, you would never have guessed it. They gave up an average of 325 passing yards per game and 26.5 points per game (against the Chiefs, Saints, Texans, Panthers, Buccaneers and Jets).

Luckily for the Patriots, their QB is the greatest to ever play the game and, even at 40 years old, he was playing at MVP level to drag the team to a 4-2 start. In the first 6 games, Tom Brady threw for 1959 yards, 13 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. The Patriots’ defense might have been struggling but the offense was as good as ever with Brady connecting well with new receiver Cooks and All Pro Tight End, Rob Gronkowski. The running game looked strong with a group of backs that all brought something different to the game allowing Brady, and OC Josh McDainels, to create match-up issues for defenses all season.

Week 7 was a turning point for the Patriots, a primetime match-up with the Atlanta Falcons. With the Patriots’ defense struggling, and the Falcons high power offense coming to Foxborough, this should have been a points fest. Instead, the Patriots’ defense stepped up and, even with star Linebacker Donta Hightower going down with a season ending injury in the third quarter, they held the Falcons to 1 touchdown.

The rest of the season was similar to the Falcons game, the defense limited teams scoring and the offense, led by Brady, continued to play at a high level. The Patriots only lost one more game all season, a divisional match-up at Miami, where Dolphins QB Jay Cutler played one of his best games of the season. The Patriots went into the playoffs as the number 1 seed in the AFC, with a 13 – 3 record, and as AFC East champions for a ninth season in a row.

The week after the Falcons game, the Patriots played, and beat, the Los Angeles Chargers but that wasn’t the biggest news of the week. The day after the Chargers game, the Patriots traded back-up quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2018 second round pick. The full impact of the Jimmy G trade might not be felt in New England for years, with Brady still playing at a high Level, but it did start rumours of unrest behind the scenes at Gillette Stadium. To make the fans feel a little worse, Jimmy G started his career, on the West Coast, 5 – 0.

The talk of unrest, behind the scenes, hit the headlines a few days after the regular season finished. An ESPN report, released on 4th January, claimed that Brady, Belichick and Robert Kraft, the Patriots’ owner, had fallen out over a number of different issues.

One of the issues was that the Patriots’ medical team didn’t like the methods of Brady’s personal trainer, and business partner, Alex Guerrero and his access to other members of the roster.This lead to Belichick having Guerrero’s pitch access revoked and his access to the stadium, and training facilities, limited. Another claim in the report is that Brady went to Robert Kraft to have Garoppolo traded. It is reported that, after a long meeting a few weeks before the trade deadline, Kraft instructed Belichick to trade Jimmy Garoppolo. Even after a run to the Superbowl, something most teams would see as success, the rumours of unrest still swirl around Gillette Stadium.

Back to football, the Patriots hosted another AFC divisional playoff game against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans came to Foxborough, after a shock comeback victory against the Chiefs, and the talk before the game was that the Titans O-line and D-line would win the battles up front and cause the Patriots plenty of problems. In reality, the Patriots dominated the game holding the Titans to 14 points. The defense sacked Titans QB, Marcus Mariota, 8 times and held power Running Back, Derrick Henry, to just 28 yards on 12 attempts. Brady lead the offense to 35 points with 3 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns. A lot of the offensive success came from the Pats O-line, they didn’t allow a sack all night keeping Brady on his feet and giving him time to pick holes in the Titans Secondary.

The victory over the Titans set up the AFC Championship match-up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars came into the game, after a surprise win against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, looking to cause another upset. Lead by the 6ft 8in giant, Calais Campbell, they had one of the best defenses in the league with talent and speed at every level and 2 first team all pro players. All the talk before the game was that this defense had what it took to beat Brady and Belichick in Foxborough. The game itself was tight and edgy with the Jags leading for most of it until, late in the 4th quarter, when Tom Brady threw a touchdown to Danny Amendola, a player known for stepping up in the playoffs. A problem that had hurt the Jaguars all season was the play of their QB, Blake Bortles, and, in the 4th quarter of the Championship game, it was this that let them down again.

Going into the Superbowl, there were a few questions about the Patriots’ defense. For 3 quarters, in the Championship game, Blake Bortles and the Jaguars were the better team and the Eagles defensive line certainly seemed to have the talent to stop Brady. Most Patriots’ fans were confident they could stop the Eagles without their star quarterback Carson Wentz. The Game itself was a good game for fans of offense, there were: 74 total points, 8 touchdowns and 878 passing yards in total. Unfortunately, for the Patriots, their defense played like it did in the first 6 weeks of the season and couldn’t stop the Eagles offense all game.

The Patriots’ offense played well with Brady throwing for 500 yards, a Superbowl record, but when the game was on the line, and the Eagles needed it most, their defense got a huge strip sack of Brady and the game was pretty much over.

After the game, more storylines of unrest came out of the Patriots’ locker room. All Pro Tight End, Rob Gronkowski, was considering his future and was forced to answer questions, from the press, over the rumours. Another storyline, from the game, was that Superbowl 49 star Malcolm Butler only played one snap all game after a reported discipline issue. One of the strangest storylines to come out after the Superbowl involved Josh McDaniels.

The Patriots’ Offensive Coordinator had a deal, in principle, to become Colts Head Coach but, at the last minute, he decided to stay as the Patriots’ OC. McDaniels made the decision so late the Colts had already announced him as their HC and called an introductory press conference. For most teams a trip to the Superbowl would be a successful season but, for the Patriots, with all the unrest and rumours it felt like a bad season especially when you add in the loss of Defensive Coordinator, Matt Patricia. This could be a turning point for, arguably, the greatest sports dynasty in North American History.

2018 Roster Moves

The Patriots’ offseason transactions, so far, have felt like a changing of the guard. Starters on both sides of the ball left in free agency or via trade. Long-time starting Left Tackle, Nate Solder, left in free agency and signed a big money deal with the Giants which leaves a big gap on the Pats’ offensive line. Star Running Back, Dion Lewis, signed for the Titans in a $20 million move. Lewis was the Patriots’ feature back for most of the season and was a game changer in both the rushing and passing attack. Another star to the leave the Patriots’ offense was reliable Slot Receiver, Danny Amendola, who signed a free agency deal with divisional rivals the Miami Dolphins.

On the defensive side of the ball, Cornerback Malcolm Butler joined Dion Lewis, in Tennessee, after being released in free agency in a move that wasn’t really a surprise after the Superbowl. The Patriots also lost Special Teamer, and back-up Cornerback, Johnson Bademosi to the Texans in free agency. Possibly the biggest surprise of the offseason was the trade, with the Rams, that sent Wide Receiver Brandin Cooks, fresh off a 1000-yard season, In exchange for the 23rd overall pick.

The incoming players, in the offseason, don’t feel like replacements for the players leaving with the exception of Jason McCourty, twin brother of Patriots’ Safety Devin. McCourty was acquired in a trade with the Browns which is also where the Patriots acquired Defensive Tackle, Danny Shelton. The Patriots also signed Offensive Tackles, Matt Tobin & Trent Brown, with Brown acquired in a trade with the 49ers. Defensive End, Adrian Clayborn, and Running Back, Jeremy Hill, were also signed. Receiver and Kick Returner, Cordarrelle Patterson, was acquired in a trade with the Raiders and Wide Receiver, Jordan Matthews, was signed after being released by the Bills.

The Patriots’ draft was also a little disappointing with the team, seemingly, neglecting issues on both sides of the ball. The Patriots have a suspect pass rush that wasn’t improved, the receivers all have similar skill sets and there is no heir apparent to Tom Brady on the roster. However, some potentially good players were added in the draft. Offensive lineman, Isaiah Wynn, was added with the 23rd overall pick and his Georgia roommate, Running Back Sony Michel, was added 8 picks later. In the second round, the Patriots selected Florida Cornerback, Duke Dawson.

The Patriots didn’t make another pick until the 5th round, after they made a number of trades, and, when they did eventually make a pick, they selected Linebacker, Ja’whaun Bentley. The Patriots’ next pick was also a Linebacker, sixth rounder Christian Sam from Arizona State. In the same round they selected Slot Receiver, Braxton Berrios, from Miami. They rounded out the draft with 3 selections in the 7th round: Quarterback, Danny Etling, from LSU, Western Carolina Cornerback, Keion Crossen, and the last selection was Ryan Izzo a Tight End from Florida State.

2018 Expected Starters

QB – Tom Brady

RB – Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead

WR – Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Jordan Matthews

TE – Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen

LT – Trent Brown

LG – Joe Thuney

C – David Andrews

RG – Shaq Mason

RT – Marcus Cannon

DE – Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn, Deatrich Wise Jr, Derek Rivers

DT – Lawrence Guy, Danny Shelton, Malcom Brown, Adam Butler

LB – Donta Hightower, Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy

S – Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon

CB – Jason McCourty, Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Duke Dawson

K – Stephen Gostkowski

P – Ryan Allen

LS – Joe Cardona

2018 Outlook

Even with the unrest, and the rumours of unhappiness, the outlook for the Patriots is still quite good. They are still the best team in the AFC East and, even though their relationship seems strained, Brady and Belichick are the best Quarterback and Coach ever and will be good enough to win between 10 and 13 games this year and, probably, reach another AFC Championship game.

One question, going into the season, is how the Patriots’ defense will look without Matt Patricia in charge.

Linebacker Coach, Brian Flores, will take over play-calling duties, under the close watch of Belichick. Will the defense be able to get to the Quarterback more often this season? Probably not, they haven’t really added much talent to the front 7. Trey Flowers should progress after a decent year, last year, but he will need support from second year players, Deatrich Wise Jr and Derek Rivers. Will the secondary be able to stop teams getting big yards? This is more likely, the addition of Jason McCourty brings an experienced Cornerback with talent. McCourty and Gilmore could be one of the better Cornerback duos in the league and, with the support of the Safety trio of McCourty, Chung and Harmon, the Pats’ secondary looks good on paper. The return of Linebacker, Donta Hightower, will help Flores in his new role, Hightower will boss the middle of the field and is the Patriots’ leader on defense. Hightower is also a versatile player, he is good against the run, a solid pass rusher and is underrated in coverage.

The Questions on the offense aren’t as big. The Patriots still have the GOAT at Quarterback and Tight End as well as an excellent play caller and their best receiver is returning for injury. Looking at it from a different perspective, that receiver, Julian Edleman, is 32 and coming off an ACL injury. Promising young Receiver, Malcolm Mitchell, makes a return from injury but is he good enough to step up and get more targets? The offense is lacking a burner who can stretch the field, the receivers are all similar types of player. Without the experience of Solder, can the offensive line keep TB12 on his feet long enough to make plays and can it create holes for Sony Michel and the rest of the Patriots Running Backs? With Dante Scarnecchia in charge of the line, they should be good but last year’s line was suspect at times.

The Patriots schedule, this year, doesn’t look too hard on paper and they could easily go 12-4 with games against the Jaguars, Vikings, Packers and Steelers looking like the toughest opponents. They could beat all of those but they could, easily, lose to all of them. With the Patriots’ bad habit of losing @ Miami (*Dave Payne says this is a good habit that they should keep forever*) they will have to beat at least one or two of these teams if they want to be number one seed in the AFC.

The Bottom Line

This could be a big season for the Patriots. If things don’t get better, behind the scenes, it could be the end of the Brady/Belichick era in Foxborough. Brady recently hinted, in his Facebook documentary, that he is thinking about life after football. Will this be the last season for the GOAT? If so, where are the Patriots going? There seems to be more questions going into this season than any other in recent memory.

If the unrest can be calmed, and the focus goes back to football, it could be a good season for the Patriots. It could, however, lead to the typical Patriots’ story of the press writing them off, nobody believes in them and then they go and win it all. If things continue as they are, this could be the end for the Greatest Dynasty the NFL has ever seen.

Written by Connor Vickers, NFL Analyst, New England Patriots