State of the Franchise - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2017 Record: 5-11

Last Play off Appearance: 2007

Head Coach: Dirk Koetter

General Manager: Jason Licht

2017 Review – Coming up short

Be honest, were you sucked in by the Bucs in September last year? This was supposed to be their year. They had just come off the back of a 9-7 season, winning 6 of the last 8, and only missed out on the playoffs, due to the NFL’s never ending list of tie-breakers. We had all seen ‘Hard Knocks’ and knew the ins and outs of them. The nurturing nature of Koetter was going to bring the best out of Jameis Winston. Winston and Mike Evans seemed to have chemistry as if they were separated at birth. By signing DeSean Jackson they had given themselves an explosive deep threat. Despite the ban, Doug Martin was going to come back better than ever. The kicking issues with Aguayo looked to have been solved by signing experienced Nick Folk. They drafted well, OJ Howard and, later in the season, Chris Godwin proving to be shrewd acquisitions. The defense had Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander, who else did they need? They were everyone’s ‘dark horse.’ Analysts scrapped over who was going to claim them, when they inevitably succeeded. I remember watching one NFL Network preview, which said that they were ‘nailed on’ for the postseason.

And then the season started...and it all unraveled.

In fairness, it didn’t get off to the best of starts. Every sports player will tell you that they are itching for the opening day. Pre-season does a job, but there is nothing like the real thing. An opening Sunday trip to Miami seemed like the perfect start. Hurricane Irma quickly put paid to that. Instead of preparing for that first game, players were worried about their safety and that of their families. Some were trying to find flights out, while others chose to ride out the storm (possibly a metaphor for the season?). Whatever happened, it must have had a mental effect on both the Bucs and Dolphins players. The game was rightly pushed back, so the Bucs started with a bye.

If the players were frustrated after Week 1, they were able to take it out on the Bears in Week 2. Leading 26-0 at half time, the only frustration was it should have been more. Jameis was finding his rhythm, and the defense recorded a pick 6, a fumble recovery and an interception. A final score of 29-7 flattered the Bears more than it did the Bucs.

The cracks began to show in Week 3 at Minnesota. Case Keenum had a field day, throwing for fun, as if he was a young kid playing in the back yard. Whatever the defense did, didn’t work. Winston began panicking, throwing wildly to try and get us back in the game. He regained his composure in Week 4 in a win over the Giants, throwing 3TD’s and setting up the game winning field goal as time expired.

A week later came, what I believe to be, the defining moment of the season. Thursday night, national exposure and home to the champions. The defense stepped up, picking off Brady for the first time that season, and generally being a nuisance. Doug Martin was back and looked promising. But with the chances the defense was creating, the offense couldn’t take advantage. Nick Folk missed 3 field goal attempts, the last of which caused me to knock over my drink and led onto an expletive driven rant, about how that is your one job! Despite all this, they took it to the last play of the game, with a chance to win it. Winston’s pass fell incomplete and the opportunity was lost. 3-1, having beaten the previous Superbowl winners, sends out a message. 2-2, having come up just short, does not.

That began a 5 game losing streak. A shocker in the desert followed. 31-0 down and having lost Winston to injury, Ryan Fitzpatrick performed admirably in what seemed like the most unlikely of all comebacks. Winston was back and led another fightback in Buffalo, that was again to fall just short. The wheels had well and truly come off by Week 10, with disappointing division defeats to the Panthers and Saints. An ugly win over the Jets brought some much needed relief and Fitzpatrick led the Bucs to a second straight win in the rearranged game with Miami, in a much more entertaining encounter.

With confidence seemingly growing, they went to Atlanta and again found themselves in a big hole. 27-6 down, they rallied to 27-20 only to (yet again) come up short. I didn’t hold out much hope going to Lambeau the following week, seeing as we don’t do cold road games in December, but a gutsy performance forced overtime, only to be beaten by a 20 yard run by Aaron Jones, that looked like we had been sliced open with a butter knife. The following week, the Bucs playoff hopes were finally mathematically finished off (ever the optimist!) in defeat to the Lions. I feel a pattern emerging, they rallied back from 21-7, to 21-21 only to lose to a last minute field goal. As is normal with a poor season, stories emerged on social media of infighting, sackings and general petulance. Two more agonising defeats followed, as the Bucs missed a late field goal against Atlanta and a late Cam Newton run giving Carolina the win by 3. In the final week, the Bucs finally recorded a win by beating the Saints in another close game. Chris Godwin’s catch was good enough for the win with 10 seconds left, a much deserved reward for a player, who had been a shining light in the second half of the season.

In the NFL’s most competitive division (trademarked by NFL Network), the Bucs were left to lick their wounds and stare longingly at the 3 other teams all taking part in the playoffs. Some coaches refer to ‘fine margins’ and this is never been truer than with the Bucs. A 5-11 season, but 7 of the 11 defeats came within 1 score. The optimist will tell you they came up just short, a realist would say they bottled it. Either way, a season that promised so much, delivered very little.

2018 Roster Moves

Probably the most important roster move happened 2 days before the Bucs 2017 season ended, when they confirmed Dirk Koetter would return for a third year. He is more than aware that he could have been a victim of NFL’s Black Monday and addressed this in his press conference after the Saints win, where his players seemingly responded to the news positively. His relationship with Winston was widely regarded as one of the defining factors. Social media may have had a different opinion and many derided it as ‘same old same old’, that he’s too predictable, doesn’t react to what is happening on the field leading to some even branding him ‘clueless.’

If the old adage is true and defense really does win championships, there were no prizes for guessing where the Bucs needed to start in the off season. The 32nd ranked defense clearly needed something doing to it and Licht went about it quickly adding ‘beef’ to the D Line, with Beau Allen, Jason Pierre Paul, Mitch Unrein and Vinny Curry. This was then supplemented by the draft.

When Licht was hired in 2014, he outlined his philosophy as ‘building through the draft,’ and with his track record, it is hard to argue against it. He has assembled some serious talent through the draft in previous years. So, when he traded down and still passed on Derwin James, in contradiction to most experts, and went for the extremely long named Vita Vea (Google it!) it’s hard not to trust him. The Bucs were clever during the draft, trading picks and picking up more draft capital. Quantity doesn’t always equal quality, but the Bucs needed depth. In all, the Bucs took 8 picks, most notably 3 in round 2. With all the defensive problems, it was no surprise that the majority of that 8, were on the defense.

On the opposite side of the ball, there are less glaring problems. A 9th ranked offense shows a promising season, and a 4th ranked passing team is normally there or there abouts. However, a 27th ranked run offense highlights were they need help. The Bucs released Doug Martin who, for all his promise, had failed to deliver. Injuries and suspensions played a part but the Bucs need someone who they can rely on, and for too long Martin had been too inconsistent. As a result, they will be looking to Jacquizz Rodgers, Payton Barber and the ‘explosive’ draft pick of Ronald Jones to establish the run in 2018.

Other notable mentions include the Bucs gambling on Ryan Jenson at center, making him the highest paid, at that position, in the NFL. They have commented on his ‘nasty’ attitude and he will need to bring that if the Bucs are to be successful. Chandler Catanzaro will be the latest to try and avoid Tampa’s curse of the kickers. Locking in Mike Evans on a 5 year deal could prove to be the best thing the Bucs have done in years. Personally I am excited for Alex Cappa, not just for having hair that most men my age can only dream of!

2018 Preview

Without sounding like a broken record, it does feel like crunch time for the current Bucs Roster. Licht has accumulated a talented group through various drafts and free agency. The Bucs have all the parts to the jigsaw, they now just need to make it fit.

Primarily, they have to get the defesce right. All the moves seem to be the right ones but those players now have to perform. It’s okay having great names on paper, but nothing is won that way. For a team once heralded by their defense, won a Superbowl on the back of it, even having a defensive system named after them, they need to get back to it.

If the defense can get it right, the offense has all the tools to succeed. Jameis needs to come of age. He has shown flashes of what he can do and there is no-one better at keeping a play alive. However, he needs to show maturity & game management if the Bucs are to compete and close games out. In a division of lions, such as Brees, Newton and Ryan, Winston sometimes looks like a lost lamb. Hopefully, the improvements to the Oline will give him more time, keep him calm and develop his game. It would be great to see him develop a relationship with DeSean Jackson, the way he has with Evans, as that will scare any defence. The running game will need to be improved but maybe not focussing all efforts on Martin may be better for all concerned.

Surely the special teams have got to work this time? When games are close you need your kickers to be on form. Field goal problems have plagued the Bucs over the last few years and in such a tight division, and when you are involved in as many close games as the Bucs are, every point matters.

The Bucs are often referred to as exciting and entertaining. Unfortunately, those words are often reserved for losers. Think about it, are the Patriots exciting and entertaining? They probably are but are never referred to it because they are winners. People are jealous of winners, so they use words such as ruthless, efficient. Those are words I want to be used in the same sentence as the Bucs at the end of the season.

Looking at the schedule, this throws up a number of exciting/daunting prospects. The Bucs are going to have to hit the ground running as the first month is as tough as it comes. Opening day trip to the Saints, followed by the champions at home, Monday night against the Steelers and an old rivalry game in the windy city. By the time the bye comes in Week 5, it will become much clearer whether they are the real deal or this is just another false dawn. An intriguing match up with the 49ers in Week 12 is another stand out, beginning a 3 game home stretch and 4 out of the last 6 at home. If the Bucs are still in contention at that point, playing all 3 division rivals at home may make all the difference.

Bottom Line

The Bucs have all the components to make the playoffs and failing to do so will almost be terminal for a number of different people. Since their last playoff appearance, the Bucs are now on their 5th different coach. For me, the Bucs have hired and fired over the past few years and it is good to see them showing some patience. However, Koetter knows he’s not just drinking in the last chance saloon, he’s picking up the tab. A slow start and the writing will be on the wall. It doesn’t seem the Bucs style to fire mid-season, but a losing record will almost certainly mean Koetter is shown the door. Jason Licht will also be feeling the pressure. A 22-42 record in his 4 years as GM paints its own picture. By others’ standards, he could easily have gone by now. He hasn’t but another poor season could see him go as well.

They have assembled an offense that will be the envy of most teams in the NFL. Less turnovers from Winston and a positive run will only improve last year’s numbers. The defense can only improve, putting others under pressure rather than piling it on themselves. The young guys have now got to come of age and for the first time in ages a bit of injury luck wouldn’t go amiss. If, and it’s a big if, all these things happen, the Bucs will at the very least be in contention for the postseason. I fear that, if they don’t, the roster will be broken up and it will be another missed opportunity.

I promise I won’t get sucked in again....until September at least!

Written by Chris Price, NFL Analyst, Tampa Bay Buccaneers