State of the Franchise - Washington Redskins

2017 record: 7-9

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015

Coach: Jay Gruden (5th year; record: 28-35-1 regular season, 0-1 post season)

General Manager: Bruce Allen (President)/Doug Williams (Senior VP of Player Personnel)

2017 Review

2017 was another frustrating season for Washington, with plenty of promise and encouragement, mixed in with inconsistency, and ultimately, fatally undermined by an incredibly high number of injuries throughout the team, but particularly on the offensive line.

The two previous seasons had delivered a division title (2015) and a playoff near miss (2016), so expectations of at least contending were considered reasonable in the ever unpredictable NFC East.

Despite the loss of 1,000 yard receivers, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, the passing game seemed to be in good shape, as emerging star, WR, Terrelle Pryor was signed from the Browns and sophomore WR Josh Doctson was expected to be fully healthy after essentially missing the whole of his rookie season. Slot receiver Jamison Crowder and TE, Jordan Reed were the other pieces to what looked like a potentially explosive passing attack.

The reality was somewhat different however, as Pryor disappeared without trace, although an ankle injury was partly to blame; Doctson showed glimpses of 1st round talent but not regularly enough; and Crowder was inconsistent. Reed, as has happened too frequently, spent most of the season injured.

However, the passing game wasn’t a total loss as QB, Kirk Cousins, still topped 4,000 yards, often relying on RB, Chris Thompson, who enjoyed a breakout season before unfortunately suffering a season ending leg injury against the Saints. Ageless TE, Vernon Davis, also showed that he still has some gas in the tank when called upon to deputise for Reed.

The offensive line was decimated by injury throughout the season, to the point where guys were literally coming in off the street at the beginning of the week and starting on the Sunday! Tackles, Trent Williams and Morgan Moses both missed considerable time with knee and ankle injuries respectively, and Guard, Brandon Scherff was also absent or playing hurt for parts of the season.

All things considered, OL coach Bill Callahan did well to keep Cousins upright, and rookie Centre, Chase Roullier showed promise when taking over from injured starter, Spencer Long.

The offensive line woes may have contributed in part to a generally underwhelming rushing attack, led by Rob Kelley and rookie, Samaje Perine. Neither established themselves as a potential feature back, although Perine did improve after a slow start.

Defensively, a bright start was derailed by more injuries, as the Redskins once again ranked in the bottom quartile of most of the relevant defensive statistics.

Rookie Defensive End, Jonathan Allen, was looking like the top prospect that he was advertised to be, until a foot injury cut short his season in week 5. Up to that point, the Defense had looked to be much improved, pressurising opposing QB’s, and tackling more aggressively, led by free agent LB Zach Brown who was a big success until injury cut short his season.

Unfortunately, the promising start petered out as injuries and inconsistent play resulted in another season of defensive mediocrity.

Unheralded defensive lineman, Anthony Lanier, and Matt Ioannidis, both showed encouraging signs, and LB, Ryan Kerrigan was as good as ever, with another double digit sack total, but the unit was unable to string together the consistent level of performance required to make a run for the playoffs and beyond.

In the secondary, Josh Norman was solid, although whether he justifies his contract is debatable, and Bashaud Breeland performed well in parts, but won’t be around in 2018. Neither will slot corner Kendall Fuller, who was the teams best defensive back last season, but is now a Kansas City Chief following the Alex Smith deal. DJ Swearinger and rookie Montae Nicholson had their moments in the Safety position, but Nicholson was lost to injury to add to Allen, Ioannadis, Brown et al.

Defensive co-ordinator, Greg Manusky, promised an attacking, aggressive, defence in his first year, and the early signs were promising. Ultimately though, the unit underwhelmed, although there is plenty of potential given improved health and consistency.

Overall, the season was a classic case of ‘what might have been’, but ultimately was one of disappointment, and while the Redskins were considerably better than the bad old days, there is still some way to go to match the teams at the top of the power rankings.

High points of the season included tough road wins against the Rams and Seahawks, and a dominant week 3 prime time demolition of the Raiders, who were at the time considered to be one of the favourites in the AFC.

Low points must include the capitation against the Saints, blowing a 15 point lead in the final 5 minutes, and both of the rivalry games against the Cowboys where the team simply didn’t perform, particularly in the 38-14 away defeat that put an end to any playoff chances. The tame end to the season at the inept Giants summed the campaign up.

Injuries clearly played a massive part, and although every team has them to some degree, it seemed like the Redskins were torn apart week after week. Football Outsiders ranked the team as having the ‘most games lost’ to injuries during the 2017 season, using their formula, which although not completely explaining the mediocre season, does at least give it some context.

2018 Roster Moves

Without question, the biggest roster move has been the departure of QB, Kirk Cousins, to the Vikings after the merciful ending of his 3 year contract battle with the front office. Alex Smith arrived in a trade to replace him, and time will tell if the move will pay off. The end of the uncertainty over Cousins must help the team, and if Smith can replicate his NFL leading passer rating from last year, it will look like a good deal. Smith is the third 34 year old QB that the Redskins have traded for since 2004 and it is to be hoped that he is more successful than Mark Brunell and Donovan McNabb were in their short stints in D.C

The downside of the Smith deal is the loss of slot corner, Kendall Fuller who, according to Pro Football Focus, was the second best slot corner, and sixth best overall in 2017. Fuller was nominally replaced by former Cowboy, Orlando Scandrick, but that feels like a significant downgrade.

The Redskins didn’t make any of the splashy moves in free agency, that used to be their specialty, during the offseason, but quietly picked up a couple of good players.

WR, Paul Richardson could be the dynamic, deep threat that Terrell Pryor was supposed to be last season. The only question with Richardson is his health. When he is on the field he is a vertical threat, with an impressive yards per catch average of 16.0 last season, and gives Smith a dangerous red zone target.

LB, Pernell McPhee also has injury history, but will add good depth to the rotation that includes Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, and Ryan Anderson.

Additionally, the Redskins retained a couple of key free agents of their own. LB, Zach Brown has signed a multi-year deal, after playing well on his one year ‘prove it’ deal. Guard, Shawn Lauvao is healthy again after being placed on IR in November, and he will be looking to regain his starting spot now he has re-signed. LB, Mason Foster is another re-signing who should re-gain his starting slot having been yet another injury casualty in Week 5 last year.

In addition to Cousins departure, the Redskins lost former starting centre, Spencer Long, LB’s Trent Murphy and Will Compton, TE, Niles Paul and WR, Terrelle Pryor. Other than possibly Cousins, none of those departures should affect the team too significantly.

The Redskins addressed 2 major needs with their first 2 picks of the 2018 Draft. Former Alabama DT, Da’Ron Payne should strengthen the run defence, along side his former Crimson Tide team mate, Jonathan Allen and RB, Derrius Guice dropped to the Redskins, following concerns about his immaturity and behaviour. Guice is widely acknowledged to have 1st round talent, and the Redskins did a huge amount of background work on him leading to the draft, even considering taking him in the 1st round. If he concentrates on football and grows up a little, he could be an absolute steal.

Beyond the headline grabbers, the team added depth across the board, with DT, Tim Settle being a possible steal having been ranked as high as a 2nd rounder by some analysts. CB Greg Stroman, LB, Shaun Dion Hamilton, S, Troy Apke and T, Geron Christian should give some depth across the board. The Redskins had the final pick in the draft, so Mr Irrelevant was WR, Trey Quinn, who is already being talked of as being a lot more relevant than his draft status would suggest. He caught 114 passes last year which is no mean feat at any level.

2018 Projected Starters Offence

QB – Alex Smith

RB1 – Derrius Guice

RB2 – Chris Thompson

WR1 – Josh Doctson

WR2 – Paul Richardson

WR3 – Jamison Crowder

TE1 – Jordan Reed

LT – Trent Williams

LG – Shawn Laovao/Ty Nsekhe

C – Chase Roullier

RG – Brandon Scherff

RT – Morgan Moses

Defense

DE – Jonathan Allen

DT – Da’Ron Payne

DE – Matt Ioannidis

OLB – Ryan Kerrigan

OLB – Preston Smith

ILB – Zach Brown

ILB – Mason Foster

CB – Josh Norman

CB – Fabian Moreau/Quinton Dunbar

Slot/Nickel – Orlando Scandrick

SS – Montae Nicholson

FS – DJ Swearinger

Special Teams

K – Dustin Hopkins

P – Tress Way

LS – Nick Sundberg

2018 Outlook

The Redskins appear to have had a quietly successful off season, addressing a number of key needs, but the success of the 2018 season is likely to begin and end with the impact made by QB, Alex Smith. If he hits the ground running and discovers early chemistry with his receiving options, the Redskins look potentially dangerous.

The running game should be significantly upgraded, assuming Derrius Guice performs as billed, and Chris Thompson will regain his 3rd down role after recovering from his broken leg.

The offensive line looks strong, although doubts remain about LG, where Shawn Laovao needs to improve, and C, Chase Roullier must continue to develop after his promising rookie year, where he was rather thrown into the fire.

Defensively, the front 7 looks as strong as it has been for some time. DE, Jonathan Allen was looking like a star before his injury, and rookie DT, Da’Ron Payne has the potential to combine with him to stuff the run, and collapse the pocket. DE’s Matt Ioannidis and Anthony Lanier both flashed potential last year, and may benefit from potential double teams for Allen and possibly Payne as well.

The LB group is solid, with OLB’s Kerrigan and Smith being one of the best pairings in football. Inside, Zach Brown will be near the top of the league in tackles if he remains healthy and Mason Foster is underrated.

The secondary is an area of potential weakness, with the departures of Breeland and Fuller leaving a hole that needs to be filled by two from Scandrick, Dunbar or Moreau, with 7th round pick Stroman potentially having a shot to contribute. Depth is an issue here, and the coaching staff needs to dial up as much pressure on opposing QB’s as possible to reduce the amount of time that the secondary needs to cover down the field.

Dustin Hopkins is a solid kicker who had abit of a down year last year, and was affected by injury, but he should remain in situ. Punter Tress Way faces competition from free agent, Sam Irwin-Hill, but is favourite to retain his job.

The return game needs to improve, and it is to be hoped that either Greg Stroman or Trey Quinn can supplant Jamison Crowder, who was a disaster on punt returns last year. Chris Thompson could continue of kick returns, but that job is potentially open.

The coaching staff has a challenge on its hands to incorporate all the new pieces, particularly on offense in time for 2018, and to be creative in its use of Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson.

Bottom Line

The Redskins are possibly one of the most difficult teams in the NFL to judge in terms of where their potential ceiling and floor is for 2018.

Despite last year’s injury nightmare, the team was competitive throughout and almost dragged themselves to .500. It isn’t unreasonable to suggest that without the unprecedented injuries, the Redskins could have been looking at challenging for a wildcard slot.

The NFC East is notoriously unpredictable, with the Redskins, Cowboys and Eagles each triumphing in the last 3 seasons. The Eagles appear to be loaded, but going back to back is tough, so it may be that they come back to the pack slightly. Nobody saw their success coming last year, so that offers some hope to the Redskins.

The Giants appear to be poised to improve significantly with the return to health of Odell Beckham and Sterling Sheppard, combined with an improved offensive line and the drafting of the game changing, Saquon Barkley. The big issue for the Giants is Eli Manning and whether he is on a permanent slide.

The Cowboys look woefully short at WR and will rely on Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott to carry them into contention.

If the Redskins can enjoy a season of no worse than average injuries, then they have the potential to contend in the Division. Unfortunately, the NFC is stacked with good teams, so the Redskins may be in the wrong Conference, as the AFC appears to be considerably weaker.

Coach, Jay Gruden, is under pressure this season, entering his 5th year. The team has been competitive the last 3 seasons, but needs to take the next step to becoming a playoff team. Nothing less than a playoff spot will be acceptable this season, or Gruden may be on his way. The schedule is relatively tough, with the NFC East facing the loaded NFC South, as well as the AFC South, where Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee could all be dangerous.

The Redskins should at the very least be competitive, but there are so many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ to factor in, that it is difficult to be too sure where the team will end up come January. If pushed, 9-7 or 10-6 look to be about as good as could be projected with the reverse of 7-9 or 6-10 being the worse case scenario.

By Anthony Wheat, NFL Analyst, Washington Redskins